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Work package 1

Workpackage number

WP 1

Start date or starting event:

Month 1

Workpackage title

Threat Analysis

Activity Type


Participant number












Person-months per beneficiary:








To establish an “Accident Scenario Data Base” with simulated high-resolution spatial and temporal radiation data on: urban, local, medium and long-range from which realistic detector measurements can be extracted for existing and hypothetical monitoring networks in Europe. 

A) Establishment and preparation of the accident scenarios.
B) Calculation of the radiation fields for the scenarios by use of atmospheric dispersion models
C) Establishment of a corresponding high-resolution radiation field “Accident Scenario  DB”
D) Simulation of 1) fixed Monitoring Network’s and 2) Mobile Units measurements

Description of work (brief description and month of delivery)

A.1      Define release scenarios for generating the “Accident Scenario Data Base”:

Convene stakeholders to identify realistic scenarios for release situations, source locations and source terms that cause radiation threats to Europe. Begin month 1 - End month 3

(RISØ 0.2, SCK•CEN 2 , HMGU 0.5 , FZK 0,25 )

A.2     Establish a European theatre nuclear accident scenario catalogue:

A catalogue with release points and source terms likely to cause possible radiological threat situations in Europe. This catalogue will provide source term input data for the scenario calculations in B.1.  Begin month 1 - End month 6

(RISØ 0.3 , SCK•CEN 0.5 , HMGU 0.25 , FZK 0,25)

B.1     Calculating radiation fields from atmospheric dispersion and deposition:

Collection of meteorological weather data (NWP data) for a full year. Begin month 1 - End month 6           [depends on  A.1]

(RISØ 0.2 , HMGU 0.25)

B.2    Contamination calculations based on the DSS’s RODOS & ARGOS embedded dispersion

model LSMC_RIMPUFF including “patchy” radar rain deposition patterns. Begin month 6- End month 18 [depends on A2].

(RISØ 3 )

C.1     Establishment of the simulated “Radiation field  Data Base”:

Establishment of a comprehensive high-resolution spatial and time-coherent data base with scenario-simulated radiation fields calculated during B on local ( < 20 km) and up to regional (<1000 km) scale. Begin month 6 - End month 24 [depends on A.2]

(RISØ 2, HMGU 1 , FZK 0,5)

D.1 Simulating Monitoring Network’s responses during scenarios:

Develop a program to extract simulated detector point “measurements” during the accident scenarios, including mobile units, based on the simulated radiation field data base. Interface endpoints to Network optimisation and planning tool WP2, including background levels and detector thresholds. Begin month 12 - End month  24.[depends on B2 and B.3]

(RISØ 1, SCK 0.5 , HMGU 1)


D1.1 Stakeholders meeting defining European threats at month 3
D1.2 Catalogue over the “Accident scenarios“ release sites and source terms at month 6
D1.3 Collection of NWP data full year at month 6
D1.4 Scenario calculations  based on LSMC_RIMPUFF at month 18
D1.5 Scenario calculations based on LSMC_RIMPUFF incl. patchy radar-rain wet deposition at    month 18
D1.6 Local and regional scale radiation DB with high-resolution space-time radiation fields (for    mobile detection)  from scenarios at month  24
D1.7 Software program to extract simulated detector end points at month 24
D1.8 Final Threat Scenario, radiation field and detector simulation DB’s including documentation at month 30